As the inauguration of U.S. president-elect Donald Trump draws near, Canadians are preparing for potential turbulence in cross-border trade. Trump’s threats to impose sweeping tariffs have sent shockwaves across multiple industries, with agriculture—and particularly the beef sector—caught in the middle of escalating trade tensions.
The agricultural sector, known for its adaptability to changing markets and unpredictable weather, now faces the daunting task of preparing for tariffs that could be enacted as soon as Monday. For stakeholders in the beef industry, the implications are especially dire. The tightly integrated Canada-U.S. beef supply chain, which often involves multiple cross-border shipments, would be significantly impacted by tariffs at every crossing.
Keith Gregory, chair of the Alberta Cattle Feeders’ Association and vice-president of Cattleland Feedyards, voiced his concerns about the potential fallout. “This could be devastating for Canada’s beef industry,” Gregory said. His family-owned feedlot near Strathmore, Alberta, houses over 16,000 cattle and exports finished cattle to the U.S. While he doesn’t import cattle, the ripple effects of tariffs could hurt his business and others across the supply chain.
“This situation is causing stress and forcing decisions that wouldn’t normally be made,” Gregory said. He added that some producers are attempting to secure forward contracts to stabilize prices, but uncertainty around trade policy makes long-term planning nearly impossible.
The Canadian beef sector is a significant contributor to the economy, generating an average of $21.8 billion annually. Alberta, Canada’s leading beef exporter, sent $3.1 billion worth of beef to the U.S. in 2023 alone. Gregory worries that retaliatory trade measures could create an oversupply of cattle in Canada, driving down prices and destabilizing the market.
Dennis Laycraft, executive vice-president of the Canadian Cattle Association, echoed these concerns, warning that tariffs could upend the longstanding trade relationship between Canada and the U.S. “The integration of our markets has made us globally competitive, especially as demand for high-quality, grain-fed beef continues to grow,” Laycraft said. “A tariff would be the worst-case scenario, and no one stands to benefit from it.”
The uncertainty is not just limited to producers. Agricultural economist Ellen Goddard noted that tariffs would likely lead to higher food prices for consumers on both sides of the border. “American shoppers, like Canadians, are already frustrated with inflation,” she said. “Introducing tariffs would only exacerbate the problem, making it politically and economically unsustainable over time.”
In Alberta, the provincial government is monitoring the situation closely. Agriculture and Irrigation Minister RJ Sigurdson stated, “We exported $8.9 billion in agricultural products to the U.S. last year. We will ensure that our producers’ voices are heard as we navigate these challenges.”
For Gregory and others in the industry, the looming tariff threat has made it nearly impossible to prepare. “It’s hard to make a plan when we don’t know what’s coming,” Gregory said. With so much at stake, the Canadian beef industry finds itself on edge, awaiting decisions that could reshape its future.
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